March Madness Sharp betting breakdowns and money picks for Sunday, March 24
March Madness Sharp betting breakdowns and money picks for Sunday, March 24

Madness continues today with eight more second-round games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for each game using our VSiN betting tabs.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at where the smart money is headed for a trio of NCAA tournament games today.

This South Regional game will be played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. James Madison (32-3) is the 12th seed and just upset Wisconsin 72-61 in the first round. Meanwhile, Duke (25-8) is the No. 4 seed and just dropped Vermont 64-47 in the opener. That streak started with Duke listed as a 7-point neutral favorite on the site. The public thinks that line is a bit high and they’re grabbing the points with James Madison. However, despite 67% of spreads taking James Madison, we’ve seen Duke stagnate at -7 and even flirt with going as low as -7.5 at some shops. Usually, if a dog gets such a crooked support, you will see the line move in his favor. The fact that that line hasn’t budged signals a sharp freeze on Duke’s line, with top dog James Madison fading professionally and instead putting up points with the Blue Devils. Duke receives just 33% of spread bets, making them one of the best opposing games of the day. Duke has better offensive efficiency (8th vs. 65th) and better defensive efficiency (22nd vs. 55th). Ken Pohm led Duke by eight points (79-71). He also has Duke ranked higher (9th vs. 57th). The pros are also down, reducing the total from 149 to 148. The underdogs receive 46% of the bets but 53% of the money, a stark contradiction of the bets.

This South Regional game will be played at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee. Texas A&M (21-14) is the 9 seed and just knocked off Nebraska 98-83 in the first round. Likewise, Houston (31-4) is the No. 1 seed and just blanked Longwood 86-46 in the opener. That streak started with Houston listed as a 10-point neutral favorite. The public is anticipating another Houston strike and is happy to settle the scores. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets, we saw Houston drop from -10 to -9.5. It signaled a sharp reverse on Texas A&M’s line, with the pros grabbing the unpopular Aggies plus points. Texas A&M gets 39% of the spread bets, but a whopping 67% of the spread money, a massive “low stakes, higher dollars” sharp split of bets. The Aggies will rely on their rebounding advantage, ranking No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Ken Pom won Houston by ten points (71-61). As a result, Texas A&M supporters would be wise to wait and/or shop around to see if they can snag a +10. We also saw some smart money hitting the over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5.

This East Region game will be played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Northwestern (22-11) is the 9 seed and just upset Florida Atlantic in overtime 77-65 in the first round. On the other hand, Connecticut (32-3) is the No. 1 seed and just routed Stetson 91-52 in the opener. That streak started with Connecticut listed as the favorite neutral site at 14.5 points. The crowd expects another lopsided win for the Huskies, and they are in a hurry to settle the points with Connecticut. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets, we saw Connecticut drop slightly from -14.5 to -14. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to facilitate Connecticut backers when they’re already hitting the Huskies to begin with? Because the pros took the big points with Northwestern, causing a sharp reversal of the line in favor of the unpopular Wildcats. Northwestern takes better care of the ball (7th in turnovers vs. 45th) and also shoots better from three-point range (39% vs. 37th). Ken Pomm wins Connecticut by ten points (75-65), which provides real value to Northwestern at the current price. Those looking to stick their noses at Northwestern would be wise to wait and/or shop for the hook at +14.5.

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